By Michael Wood
Softened by above-average winter rainfall and ravaged by the clawing of studs, the Dunfermline Athletic squad sauntered off the East End Park turf to rapturous applause, appreciated by a tired outfit who just completed their fifth 90 minutes in 17 days, culminating in victory against the side residing at the top of the Championship table: Dundee United.
A heavy surface and heavy legs have felt the bruising of a season that has seen the club suffer 18 longer-term – four games or more – lower limb injuries amassing a total of 157 matches missed.
But, like Spring, there are signs of growth as the squad size becomes more plentiful. With the seasons changing, Dunfermline welcomed Alex Jakubiak, Chris Kane, Kane Ritchie-Hosler, Rhys Breen, Sam Fisher and their captain, Kyle Benedictus, from the cold harshness of the treatment room.
The Pars, like the budding flower, aim to climb higher to safety, but there is a glimmer of hope with the perfect conditions that they can sneak into a Premiership play-off berth.
Seven games across 41 days remained, starting in Greenock against a side who may as well have salted the earth on which Dunfermline play when they cut them down to size in a five-nil drubbing – the club’s most wounding home defeat in 17 years.
Morton, however, is on a slide. A regression to the mean for, perhaps, the streakiest club in the Championship with five losses in a row, coming off the back of 16 unbeaten. Now, the countenance is that their defeats have come against Dundee United, Partick Thistle and Heart of Midlothian, teams all above them in the hierarchal pyramid that is Scottish football, however, without a doubt, the great disappointment is the listlessness shown when beaten two-nil at Cappielow by a struggling Inverness Caledonian Thistle.
Across the previous three meetings this season, Morton edged the head-to-head on goal difference six goals to four, but Dunfermline did edge the encounters: two wins to one. Back in November’s fixture in Renfrewshire, the Pars, on national television, embarrassed Dougie Imrie’s side in the first-half when Owen Moffat netted a quick fire double in the opening seven minutes.
Thankfully, due to Deniz Mehmet saving a penalty from ex-Par Robbie Muirhead, Dunfermline picked up another away win through a Miles Welch-Hayes header which saw the sides swap positions in the table and DA move back into the top-half, a point shy of Airdrieonians, who, albeit, would have a couple games in-hand, one of them being Dunfermline’s next opponents: Arbroath.
The Red Lichties have taken the scalps of Airdrie, Ayr United and Raith Rovers at Gayfield, the Pars will hope they do not become the fourth at a venue where you play the opposition as much as the conditions. The swirling wind and rain, conditions synonymous with the ground, caused the Rovers trouble and played a part in their capitulation at the start of the month.
Dunfermline would hope to avoid a similar dismal day as they have neither won or lost a game beyond the Tay Bridge this season, drawing twice at Tannadice and Caledonian Stadium. Hopefully, they do not go on to stalemate again at Gayfield.
To start April, the Pars will host Partick Thistle, a side out of reach in third. It is not a free hit as every point could be vital in the run-in, however, should they lose, as they did the last time the Jags came to the city, it would not be terminal in their pursuit of fourth; it would be against the side they play after: Airdrie.
Rhys McCabe finally beat a McPake side at the seventh time of asking when winning two-nil at East End Park at the beginning of the month. Yet, one of Dunfermline’s better performances this season was at Excelsior Stadium when two-one winners against a club that has lost just four times at home in the Championship: twice to Ayr United and once to Dundee United.
Outside of Fife, Dunfermline is unbeaten (W: 16; D: 5) on artificial turf with McPake at the helm, meaning the change in the surface should not be a hindrance. And if Athletic are to finish in the top four, then three points appear vital.
Just seven days after losing five-nil to Morton, Dunfermline lost three-nil to Queen’s Park and were just as woeful. A quarter of the Hampden Park outfit’s eight wins in the league this season have come against the Pars, the others to suffer the ignominy of defeat: Arbroath (3), Inverness Caledonian Thistle (2) and Raith (1).
Dunfermline need to get their home form looking respectable, and that means seeing off those in the middle of the pack; they have only beaten five sides – Airdrie, Arbroath, Ayr, Dundee United and Morton – once apiece on Halbeath Road and could do with adding Callum Davidson’s men to the list.
The last game at home sees Inverness visit Scotland’s newest city with nothing separating the pair in 270 minutes of football this season, and it should be looked upon with despondency if that extends to six hours as long as it is another point on the board.
Which leaves a visit to the coast to finish up the regular season. Dunfermline beat Scott Brown’s side two-nil to kick off March’s run of games, but squandered the same lead at the end of 2023 when clear after nine minutes when Lee Bullen was in charge. Hopefully, it is not a game of consequence, and the Pars can get through the 90 minutes with no injuries.
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If the remaining fixtures were a carbon copy of the first encounters then the league table would look as thus at the end of the season:
Positions three through six are performing below their historical points average, more so at the top than the bottom from that set of four sides, which means in all likelihood, the side that finishes fourth this season will be the weakest to do so since the Premiership play-offs were implemented in 2014. Previously, three teams averaged 1.44 points per game to slip into promotion contention, which across as 36-game season (there has has been one completed 27-match campaign) is 52 points.
If Airdrieonians stick to form they may squeak into fourth with 49 points (1.36ppg), if they were to lose to Dunfermline then that last potential promotion spot may be up for grabs for as few as 47 points.
Meaning four wins, and four targeted victories against Airdrie, Arbroath, Inverness and Queen’s Park should be enough to see the Pars fall into a play-off quarter-final against Partick.
From there, just like sowing seeds in the winter, you may just get more than you expected come late Spring.
(Photo credit: Craig Brown – DAFC.co.uk)
That's Never 10 Yards 